Anthropogenic climate change is causing an increased frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events (i.e. droughts and unusually wet conditions). At the same time, human development and land conversion interrupts and fragments previously contiguous habitats. Long-lived plants with slow reproduction are unlikely to be able to avoid the combined effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation by migrating, since only plant pollen and seeds are capable of movement. It is therefore important to understand how plants will fare under climate change, and how much worse the situation will be with habitat fragmentation. This question is difficult to answer because few experiments have collected data for long enough, on all sizes or life stages of a plant, and in both habitat fragments and “intact” habitat. Using a unique dataset from a long term ecological experiment combined with statistical modeling techniques borrowed from epidemiology, I investigated the impacts of drought on a long-lived tropical understory plant in the Brazilian Amazon.