I’m currently teaching Ecological Statistics and Data, a class I inherited from Lee Brown and Elizabeth Crone. In a lecture on population dynamics, they do some really cool things with generalized linear model—things that I don’t think are standard practice and as far as I can tell from googling, aren’t well documented. And let me tell you, I did a **lot** of googling to make sure I understood this stuff before teaching it. So, I thought I’d put it up on the blog for others.

# Data

I’ll be using data on the Northern Rocky Mountain grey wolf population. You can read more about the history of these wolves here.

```
library(tidyverse)
library(here)
wolves <- read_csv(here("static", "files", "NRMwolves.csv")) %>%
mutate(year_post = year - 1982)
head(wolves)
```

```
## # A tibble: 6 x 8
## year num.wolves MT.wolves WY.wolves ID.wolves OR.wolves WA.wolves
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 1982 8 8 NA NA NA NA
## 2 1983 6 6 NA NA NA NA
## 3 1984 6 6 NA NA NA NA
## 4 1985 13 13 NA NA NA NA
## 5 1986 15 15 NA NA NA NA
## 6 1987 10 10 NA NA NA NA
## # … with 1 more variable: year_post <dbl>
```

# Exponential growth

Exponential growth describes unregulated reproduction and is described by the equation:

\[ N_{T} = \lambda^TN_0 \]

where \(\lambda\) is the population growth rate, \(T\) is a number of time steps (e.g. years) and \(N_0\) is the population at some initial time.

## Hacking an exponential growth rate GLM

We can take advantage of a log-link to linearize this equation:

\[ log(N_T) = log(N_0) + log(\lambda)\times T \]

Compare to a generic GLM equation with a log-link:

\[ log(y)= \beta_0 + \beta_1x_1 \]

Here’s the glm for an exponential growth model fit to the wolf data:

```
m_exp <- glm(num.wolves ~ year_post,
family = poisson(link = "log"), data = wolves)
exp(coef(m_exp))
```

```
## (Intercept) year_post
## 19.615307 1.176583
```

The backtransformed intercept is the estimate for \(N_0\), the estimated number of wolves at `year_post`

= 0

The backtransformed coefficient for `year_post`

= \(\lambda\), the population growth rate

# Process error

The exponential growth model fit above is an observation error model. It assumes variation from predicted values are due to inaccuracies in estimating the number of wolves.

A process error model estimates a population growth that depends on current population size. This can be modeled as a rate, \(N_{t+1}/N_{t}\).

## Hacking a process error GLM

Again, we can use a log-link to linearize this:

\[ log(N_{t+1}/N_{t}) = \beta_0 \]

\[ log(N_{t+1}) +log(N_{t}) = \beta_0 \] \[ log(N_{t+1}) = \beta_0 + log(N_{t}) \]

The \(log(N_t)\) term, which has no coefficient associated with it, is an **offset**. We can hack a glm to fit this model like so:

```
wolves2 <- wolves %>%
mutate(num.prev = lag(num.wolves)) %>% #create a column of lagged wolf numbers
filter(!is.na(num.prev))
m_process <- glm(num.wolves ~ 1, offset = log(num.prev),
family = poisson(link = "log"), data = wolves2)
```

The backtransformed intercept is the yearly rate of increase (\(N_{t+1}/N_t\))

`exp(coef(m_process))`

```
## (Intercept)
## 1.108238
```

\[ N_{t+1} = e^{\beta_0} \times N_{t} \]

So, if there are 13 wolves in 1985, how many would it predict in 1986?

`1.108238 * 13`

`## [1] 14.40709`

# Ricker model

Finally, the most complicated, possibly mind blowing example of hacking a GLM. This one took me quite a while to wrap my head around.

A Ricker model takes carrying capacity into account and allows growth rate to change as the population increases. It approximates logistic growth.

\[ N_{t+1}=N_{t}e^{r\left(1-{\frac {N_{t}}{K}}\right)} \] where \(r = ln(\lambda)\) and \(K\) is the carrying capacity

## Hacking a Ricker model GLM

Linearizing using a log-link (please tell me if I got the math wrong in the comments):

\[ log(N_{t+1})=log(N_{t}) + log\left( (e^r)^{\left(1-{\frac {N_{t}}{K}}\right)}\right) \]

\[ log(N_{t+1})=log(N_{t}) + log (e^r)\times{\left(1-{\frac {N_{t}}{K}}\right)} \]

\[ log(N_{t+1})= r-\frac{r}{K}N_{t} + \textrm{offset}[log(N_{t})] \]

We can model this with the following GLM:

```
m_rick <- glm(num.wolves ~ num.prev, offset = log(num.prev),
family = poisson, data = wolves2)
```

\(r = \beta_0\)

`coef(m_rick)[1]`

```
## (Intercept)
## 0.3119624
```

\(\beta_1 = -r/K\)

`coef(m_rick)[2]`

```
## num.prev
## -0.0001683389
```

Which means that \(K = -\beta_0/\beta_1\)

`-coef(m_rick)[1]/coef(m_rick)[2]`

```
## (Intercept)
## 1853.18
```

`emo::ji("exploding_head")`

`## 🤯`